Guidehouse Insights Estimates More Than 1.2 Million Automated Trucks and Buses Will be Deployed Globally Each Year by 2032

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A new report from Guidehouse Insights explores the size of global and regional markets for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles in various segments with highly automated driving capability.

One of the many secondary effects of the pandemic has been a shortage of labor in many areas including truck drivers. Development of automated driving systems (ADS) technology has continued throughout the now two-year-old global pandemic and in many market segments is seen as more essential than ever. According to a new report from Guidehouse Insights, more than 1.2 million automated trucks and buses are expected be deployed globally each year by 2032.

“Multiple pilot deployments of automated trucks and buses of various types are already occurring in numerous countries around the world,” says Sam Abuelsamid, principal research analyst with Guidehouse Insights. “All are still relying on safety operators although a few driverless tests have occurred.”

However, many of these are expected to become commercialized driverless operations, primarily for long-haul trucking, last-mile deliveries, and middle-mile deliveries by 2025. Truck-driving applications are in many ways much more predictable than robotaxis or personal vehicles, so deploying ADS is expected to be easier because the operational design domains (ODD) are more restricted, according to the report.

The report, Market Data: Automated Trucks and Buses, evaluates the potential sales and fleet deployments of Level 4 and Level 5 (as defined by SAE International standard J3016) automated trucks and buses through 2032. These are vehicles that can be operated without continuous human supervision or intervention while within their ODD. The projections are split between goods delivery vans, rigid trucks, semi tractors, transit and coach buses, and shuttle buses. An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Guidehouse Insights website.