SAMPO PLC INTERIM STATEMENT 2 November 2022 at 9:40 am
Sampo Group’s results for January–September 2022
• Group P&C gross written premiums increased by 7 per cent year-on-year.
• Strong Group combined ratio of 81.6 per cent (80.9).
• Underwriting profit increased by 3 per cent to EUR 1,009 million (985). Excluding COVID-19 effects reported in the 2021 comparison period, underwriting profit grew 13 per cent.
• Profit before taxes amounted to EUR 1,472 million (1,974) and earnings per share to EUR 2.19 (2.74). Excluding all Nordea-related items, profit before taxes was EUR 1,212 million (1,356).
• Group Solvency II coverage including dividend accrual increased to 238 per cent from 185 per cent at the 2021 year-end and 233 per cent at the end of the second quarter.
|Profit before taxes||1,472||1,974||-25||407||632||-36|
|Profit for the period||1,218||1,662||-27||321||550||-42|
|Earnings per share, EUR||2.19||2.74||-0.55||0.58||0.93||-0.35|
|EPS (without eo. items), EUR *)||2.00||2.31||-0.31||0.58||0.67||-0.09|
|EPS (including OCI), EUR **)||-0.97||3.67||-4.64||-0.28||1.01||-1.63|
|RoE (including OCI), %||-6.3||22.7||-29.0||—||—||—|
*) Nordea-related accounting effects of EUR 103 million in January-September 2022 have been defined as extraordinary items in accordance with Sampo Group’s dividend policy. The comparison figures included extraordinary items of EUR 237 million in January-September and EUR 144 million in the third quarter.
**) OCI refers to Other comprehensive income.
The figures in this report have not been audited.
|Sampo Group financial targets for 2021-2023||Target||1–9/2022|
|Group||Mid-single digit UW profit growth annually on average (excluding COVID-19 effects)||3% (13% excluding reported COVID-19 effects in 1-9/2021)|
|Group combined ratio: below 86%||81.6%|
|Solvency ratio: 170-190%||256% (238% including dividend accrual)|
|Financial leverage: below 30%||25.9%|
|If||Combined ratio: below 85%||79.8%|
|Hastings||Operating ratio: below 88%||88.0%|
|Loss ratio: below 76%||77.6%|
Financial targets for 2021-2023 announced at the Capital Markets Day on 24 February 2021.
January-September 2022 effects related to the COVID-19 pandemic have been very limited; hence, these will not be reported separately.
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR JANUARY-SEPTEMBER 2022
Sampo Group’s core business, P&C insurance delivered strong results in January-September 2022. Underwriting profit exceeded EUR 1 billion, increasing by 3 per cent year-on-year or 13 per cent adjusted for COVID-19 effects reported in the 2021 comparison period. The Group combined ratio remained strong at 81.6 per cent (80.9), supported by good underlying development and continued benefits from higher discount rates. Excluding the reported COVID-19 effects in the comparison period, the combined ratio would have improved by 1.0 percentage point year-on-year. Gross written premiums increased by 7 per cent to EUR 6,493 million, driven by strong renewals, high retention and rate actions across key business lines. Sampo targets mid-single digit per cent underwriting profit growth on average and a combined ratio below 86 per cent for 2021-2023.
If P&C reported robust results for January-September 2022 as its underwriting profit increased by 11 per cent to EUR 756 million (680). The growth was driven by a 1.0 percentage point improvement in the combined ratio to 79.8 per cent (80.8) and a currency adjusted premium growth of 7.0 per cent. The premium growth was particularly strong in Industrial and Baltic, whereas continued weak Nordic new car sales weighed on growth in Private. If’s adjusted risk ratio improved by 0.6 percentage points and the combined ratio outlook for 2022 was strengthened to 80–82 per cent. If’s investment portfolio continued to be gradually reinvested at higher rates, increasing the fixed income running yield to 2.7 per cent at the end of September, from 2.1 per cent at the end of the second quarter and 1.5 per cent at year end 2021. Profit before taxes increased to EUR 932 million (818).
Topdanmark’s profit before taxes decreased to EUR 92 million (256) in Sampo Group’s profit and loss account as investment returns continued to be affected by the adverse market environment. The combined ratio was 83.4 per cent (82.9).
Hastings delivered solid performance in a challenging UK motor insurance market, in which market prices still lagged behind elevated claims inflation. Hastings remained disciplined and continued to apply rate increases, supporting currency adjusted GWP growth of 11 per cent in January-September 2022 and 20 per cent in the third quarter. Live customer policies increased 2 per cent year-on-year to nearly 3.2 million, driven by a 28 per cent growth in home insurance, while motor insurance policies remained stable. The operating ratio increased to 88.0 per cent (78.1). Hastings’ profit before taxes excluding non-operational amortisation amounted to EUR 109 million (145) and reported profit before taxes was EUR 65 million (115).
The Mandatum segment’s profit before taxes for January-September 2022 decreased to EUR 189 million (201), as the investment results continued to be affected by the adverse market environment. Mandatum’s third-party assets under management decreased to EUR 10.1 billion from EUR 11.1 billion at the year-end 2021 and EUR 10.3 billion at the end of the second quarter, as the decline in market values outweighed positive net flows. Mandatum Life’s Solvency II ratio increased to 282 per cent (190), driven by higher interest rates and continued decline in solvency capital requirement.
The Holding segment’s profit before taxes amounted to EUR 194 million (584), including a dividend of EUR 157 million from Nordea and a gain of EUR 103 million from selling all the remaining Nordea shares during the first half of 2022.
Sampo’s third buyback programme of EUR 1 billion, launched on 9 June 2022, continued at a good pace during the third quarter with the repurchase of 8.7 million Sampo A shares for a total consideration of EUR 379 million. Prior to the launch of the ongoing programme, Sampo had already completed its first two buyback programmes. In total, Sampo repurchased 24.4 million shares for a total of EUR 1.1 billion in January-September 2022.
Sampo Group’s Solvency II ratio increased to 238 per cent from 185 per cent at the end of 2021 and 233 per cent at the end of June 2022, net of dividend accrual based on the 2021 insurance dividend of EUR 1.70 per share. The 5 percentage points increase from the end of the second quarter was mainly driven by strong underwriting profit and continued benefits from higher interest rates. Sampo targets a solvency ratio of 170-190 per cent.
Sampo Group’s financial leverage increased to 25.9 per cent from 23.8 per cent at the end of 2021, but decreased from 29.2 per cent at the end of June 2022. The 3.3 percentage point decrease in the quarter was driven by the EUR 501 million tender offer of Sampo plc senior bonds and the redemption of Hastings’ GBP 250 million senior bond in September 2022. Sampo targets a financial leverage ratio below 30 per cent.
THIRD QUARTER 2022 IN BRIEF
In July-September 2022, Sampo Group reported profit before taxes of EUR 407 million (632). Excluding all Nordea-related items, the comparison figure was EUR 374 million in the third quarter of 2021. Earnings per share amounted to EUR 0.58 (0.93). Total comprehensive income, which takes changes in the market values of assets into account, was affected by the adverse capital markets environment and amounted to EUR -131 million (595).
Group underwriting profit amounted to EUR 330 million (327). Excluding COVID-19 effects reported in the comparison period, underwriting profit grew by 5 per cent. The Group combined ratio amounted to 82.4 per cent (81.1).
If P&C delivered profit before taxes of EUR 270 million (252) and underwriting profit of EUR 235 million (238). The combined ratio was 81.6 per cent (80.2) and constant currency gross written premium growth stood at 5.7 per cent. The adjusted risk ratio, which excludes the impact of large losses, severe weather, reported COVID-19 effects and prior year development, improved by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year.
Topdanmark’s profit before taxes decreased to EUR 32 million (48) and the combined ratio improved to 81.8 per cent (84.4).
Hastings’ profit before taxes amounted to EUR 40 million (31) and the operating ratio was 87.0 per cent (81.3). Live customer policy count remained stable, supported by strong growth in home insurance policies.
The Mandatum segment’s profit before taxes amounted to EUR 74 million (59). Net flows in third-party assets under management remained positive despite the challenging market environment and the Mandatum Life Solvency II ratio increased by 27 percentage points to 282 per cent.
GROUP CEO’S COMMENT
Sampo’s first full quarter as a pure insurance group illustrated the benefits of our focused strategy. We delivered strong results and our balance sheet remains in excellent condition, despite ongoing economic uncertainty and capital markets volatility. Underwriting profit is up 13 per cent year to date, net of reported COVID-19 effects, ahead of our annual mid-single digit growth target.
In September, Sampo hosted an Investor Update focused on our operational capabilities in Nordic P&C insurance. The Group has, through extensive investment over two decades, built significant competitive advantages that have driven, and continue to drive, excellent financial performance. The third quarter was no exception, as we delivered P&C premium growth of 7 per cent and a Group combined ratio of 82.4 per cent, comfortably within our below 86 per cent target.
The operational environment in Sampo’s main business area, Nordic P&C insurance, was stable over the quarter. Claims inflation remained in the 4-5 per cent range, broadly unchanged from the second quarter; we have continued to cover this with adjustments to premium rates and without adverse effect on our high retention. If P&C achieved a combined ratio of 81.6 per cent in the quarter, well within the target of below 85 per cent, despite an unusually high large claims load. In the UK, we have implemented significant further price increases in response to continued high claims inflation, which has limited customer growth in motor insurance. However, our pricing discipline has ensured that margins remain strong as we delivered an operating ratio of 87.0 per cent for the quarter.
The economic and geopolitical uncertainty observed this year has translated into volatility in the capital markets that has adversely affected Sampo’s fair value investment returns. However, Sampo is well positioned to benefit from rising interest rates due to our short duration fixed income portfolio. If P&C has seen its running yield increase by 120 basis points to 2.7 per cent over 2022, while the Solvency II ratio of our Finnish life and savings business, Mandatum Life, has risen by 92 percentage points year to date to a record 282 per cent. Notably, Mandatum saw positive customer net flows into capital light fee products during the third quarter despite the tumultuous market environment, which highlights its strong position in the Finnish market.
Solid underwriting results and positive gearing to rising interest rates also supported our Group financial position and we remain overcapitalised. We estimate EUR 3–4 per share of excess capital over and above the levels needed to run our insurance operations, of which just over half is available following the exit from Nordea earlier in 2022. The balance relates to direct investments in Sampo plc that we plan to exit over time. We remain firmly committed to our balance sheet targets and I believe it is desirable to continue our gradual approach to returning excess capital given the ongoing economic uncertainty. We will announce the Board’s proposal for further capital returns in connection with full-year 2022 results on 10 February 2023.
Given our strong operational momentum, I am delighted that the Sampo Board has decided to work toward a dual listing on Nasdaq Stockholm in the second half of November, subject to market conditions and approvals from Nasdaq Stockholm and the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority. Following our increased focus on Sampo’s successful P&C insurance operations, along with our leading market position in the Nordics, and the ability to offer attractive capital returns, I believe that Sampo is well placed to create shareholder value over time.
Outlook for 2022
Sampo Group’s P&C insurance operations are expected to achieve underwriting margins that meet the annual targets set for 2021-2023. At Group level, Sampo targets a combined ratio of below 86 per cent, while the target for its largest subsidiary, If P&C, is below 85 per cent. Hastings targets an operating ratio of below 88 per cent. Following strong performance in the first nine months, the outlook for If P&C’s 2022 combined ratio has been improved to 80–82 per cent from 80.5-82.5 per cent at the end of the second quarter.
The combined and operating ratios of Sampo Group’s P&C insurance operations are subject to volatility driven by, among other factors, seasonal weather patterns, large claims, prior year development and fluctuations in claims frequency related to the COVID-19 pandemic. These effects are particularly relevant for individual segments and business areas, such as the Danish and UK operations.
The mark-to-market component of investment returns will be significantly influenced by capital markets’ developments, particularly in life insurance.
With regard to Topdanmark, reference is made to the profit forecast model that the company publishes on a quarterly basis.
The major risks and uncertainties for the Group in the near-term
In its current day-to-day business activities Sampo Group is exposed to various risks and uncertainties, mainly through its major business units.
Major risks affecting the Group companies’ profitability and its variation are market, credit, insurance and operational risks. At the Group level, sources of risks are the same, although they are not directly additive due to the effects of diversification.
Uncertainties in the form of major unforeseen events may have an immediate impact on the Group’s profitability. The identification of unforeseen events is easier than the estimation of their probabilities, timing, and potential outcomes. During 2022 the global economy has been hit by the war in Ukraine and further COVID-related lockdowns in China. At the same time, inflation pressures have intensified and broadened forcing central banks to raise interest rates sharply. This may lead to both a further significant slowdown in economic growth and a deterioration in the debt service capacity of businesses, households and governments. Furthermore, the re-alignment of energy supplies in Europe takes time and the energy crisis could continue for several years. These developments are currently causing significant uncertainties on economic and capital market development. At the same time rapidly evolving hybrid threats create new challenges for states and businesses. There are also a number of widely identified macroeconomic, political and other sources of uncertainty which can, in various ways, affect the financial services industry in a negative manner.
Other sources of uncertainty are unforeseen structural changes in the business environment and already identified trends and potential wide-impact events. These external drivers may have a long-term impact on how Sampo Group’s business will be conducted. Examples of identified trends are demographic changes, sustainability issues, and technological developments in areas such as artificial intelligence and digitalisation including threats posed by cybercrime.
DUAL LISTING ON NASDAQ STOCKHOLM
Sampo plc’s Board of Directors decided on 2 November 2022 to proceed with the dual listing on Nasdaq Stockholm, following the evaluation announced on 8 September 2022, with the aim to conclude the process and to commence trading on Nasdaq Stockholm in the second half of November.
The next step in the dual listing process is for Sampo to attain approval from Nasdaq Stockholm regarding the dual listing and that the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority approves the listing prospectus being prepared by Sampo. Sampo will provide updates on the status of the dual listing in due course. The dual listing process remains subject to suitable market conditions and approvals from by Nasdaq Stockholm and the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority.
Sampo will not raise capital or make any offering as part of the dual listing process. The dual listing on Nasdaq Stockholm will be carried out in the form of Swedish Depository Receipts (SDRs). To facilitate trading and enhance liquidity in the SDRs, Sampo plans to appoint SEB as issuer of the SDRs and as a market maker and liquidity provider in the SDRs.
Board of Directors
For more information, please contact
Knut Arne Alsaker, Group CFO, tel. +358 10 516 0010
Sami Taipalus, Head of Investor Relations, tel. +358 10 516 0030
Maria Silander, Communications Manager, Media Relations, tel. +358 10 516 0031
An English-language conference call for investors and analysts will be arranged at 4 pm Finnish time (2 pm UK time). Please call tel. +1 212 999 6659, +44 (0) 33 0551 0200, +46 (0) 8 5052 0424, or +358 9 2319 5437. Conference passcode: Sampo Q3
The conference call can also be followed live at www.sampo.com/result. A recorded version will later be available at the same address.
In addition, the Investor Presentation is available at www.sampo.com/result.
Sampo will publish the Financial Statement Release for 2022 on 10 February 2023.
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