CRU Fertilizers Top Ten Calls for 2020

CRU Fertilizers have over 13,000 different data points forecast for 2020 across their different market outlooks. CRU analyses everything from Chinese soybean demand through to natural gas prices to construct their view on the different fertilizer markets. CRU will be monitoring these calls throughout the course of 2020 to see how they are performing.

China urea and DAP exports to fall, but remain critical to prices

CRU forecasts Chinese urea exports to fall to 4.1 Mt from 4.8 Mt in 2019 – on the back of continued capacity consolidation. DAP exports are forecast to drop only modestly, to 6.3 Mt from 6.4 Mt in 2019 – announced production cuts will be offset by continued poor demand.

India urea and DAP imports to also decline

2020 Indian urea imports are forecast to decline to 6.8 Mt from record estimated levels of 8.8 Mt in 2019, due to new domestic capacity being realised. High inventories and expected reduced subsidy rates will cap DAP imports at 5.6 Mt from the 5.8 Mt estimated for 2019.

China potash contract to finally be agreed at the end of Q1

There was no Chinese potash contract settlement in 2019. Inventories are at a record high, but with seaborne import restrictions now in force and spring demand on the horizon, they will be drawn down. We expect an agreement at the end of Q1, down $25/t at $265/t.

Chinese soybean imports to rebound above 80Mt

Soybean markets have been impacted by weak Chinese demand in 2019, owing to the wide scale cull of its pig herd. With pork prices at record highs and herd sizes being rebuilt, we anticipate Chinese soybean imports will increase almost 9% y/y, to 87 Mt.

Corn & soybean plantings to bounce in the US and Brazil

An easing in US-China trade tensions will boost US soy plantings to 82 M acres, up 7% y/y. Chinese demand will also boost soy plantings in Brazil, up 3% y/y to 38 M ha. Strong corn prices will see US plantings at 93M acres, while area for the upcoming safrinha crop in Brazil will be up 3% y/y, at 13.3 M ha.