Royal LePage: National home prices rise sharply in second quarter as housing supply struggles to keep up with surge in demand

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast released today, the aggregate¹ price of a home in Canada increased 6.8 per cent year-over-year to $673,072, in the second quarter. Once provinces allowed regular real estate activity to resume, demand surged in many markets. Inventory levels, already constrained pre-pandemic, have failed to keep pace.

“Home prices shot up in the second quarter as a crush of buyers entered the market, attracted by extremely low interest rates and the perception of bargains to-be-had,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “Across Ontario and Quebec in particular, the demand for housing outpaced the growth in supply, especially in the early weeks post-lockdown. The surge in the number of first-time buyers was felt acutely, as these housing consumers soaked up supply without contributing to it.”

Soper continued, “We are now seeing sellers return to the market in key supply-constrained regions in numbers sufficient to meet demand. Home buyers should enjoy more reasonable conditions with stable prices and improved selection in the second half of the year.”

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data in 64 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the median price of a standard two-storey home rose 8.0 per cent year-over-year to $794,392, while the median price of a bungalow increased 3.9 per cent to $550,289. The median price of a condominium increased 5.3 per cent year-over-year to $503,983. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian valuation company.

“COVID-19 shaped the real estate market during the second quarter in every possible way,” said Soper. “As consumers and Realtors®² complied with April’s shelter-at-home directives and only urgent housing needs were serviced, sales volumes plummeted to one-third of normal in our largest cities. As the reality of extended and potentially permanent work-from-home employment sunk in, people pondered both the location and size of their homes. Simply put, larger homes in smaller communities have become more fashionable. As competition for these properties heats up, bidding wars are more common in what were our quieter cities and towns.”

Across Canada, the 11 regions to post the highest year-over-year gains in median home price were in Ontario. In order, Mississauga (13.5%), Windsor (12.2%), Markham (11.9%), Ottawa (11.7%), Niagara/St.Catharines (11.3%), London (10.5%), Brampton (10.4%), Toronto (10.2%)/Greater Toronto Area (10.0%), Guelph (9.9%), Kitchener/Waterloo/Cambridge (9.8%), and Milton (9.7%).

Immigration

Immigration has been disrupted by pandemic travel restrictions, with the impact to real estate markets varying across regions and housing segments. Royal LePage’s 2019 Newcomer study showed that upon arriving in Canada, only 15 per cent of newcomers purchase their first home. The average time period after which newcomers will purchase a property is three years after arriving in Canada.³

“Our research shows that many of the newcomers to our nation who intended to buy a home this year have already been living in Canada for three or more years,” said Soper. “A short-term drop in the number of new immigrants and international students will not directly impact home sales in the current year, as most newcomers will rent their first home. We may feel the impact of fewer new Canadians in our residential investment market with less demand for rental units. Mitigating the impact of this trend is a surge in first-time buyer interest. Some landlords may choose to sell to eager millennial families if rental demand softens.”

Lengthy Economic Recovery and Revised Royal LePage Forecast

As home sellers return to the market, inventory levels are expected to rise, relieving the acute upward pressure on home prices that characterized the supply-constrained second quarter of 2020. Uncertainty clouds Canada’s real estate outlook as a lengthy recovery for the Canadian and world economies is expected. The negative impact on home prices should be muted by the balanced nature of Canadian housing, as chronic housing supply shortages offset dampened medium-term demand.

Royal LePage has revised its forecast slightly upward, with the national aggregate price expected to end 2020 up 2.3 per cent to $663,000 in the fourth quarter compared the same period in 2019.

REGIONAL SUMMARIES

Greater Toronto Area

Pent-up demand coupled with a lack of supply in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) resulted in significant price appreciation in the second quarter. The aggregate price of a home in the GTA increased 10.0 per cent year-over-year to $899,001 in the second quarter of 2020. When broken down by housing type, the median price of a standard two-storey home increased 10.7 per cent year-over-year to $1,050,323 and the price of a bungalow rose 6.4 per cent year-over-year to $852,260. During the same period, condominiums in the region continued to see strong price appreciation, with the median price rising 9.3 per cent year-over-year to $599,235.

“Prior to the market disruption caused by the pandemic, the GTA was on track for double-digit price growth in 2020. While the first half of the second quarter saw market activity severely curtained, as soon as the market woke up in late May, sales quickly accelerated,” said Kevin Somers, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Limited. “However, with listings not keeping pace and buyer competition high, we are again seeing double-digit price appreciation in the region.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will increase 4.0 per cent to $882,000 in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter last year.

“While buyer demand outstripping inventory has been typical of the Toronto market, the return of buyers before sellers in the second half of the quarter amplified price growth,” said Somers. “Sellers are now returning and while buyers should not expect bargains, they may find the second half of the year more reasonable for inventory and price appreciation.”

Greater Montreal Area

The Greater Montreal Area aggregate home price rose 7.7 per cent year-over-year to $449,996, in the second quarter of 2020.

With the resumption of real estate brokerage activities on May 11, after being shut down for more than a month, all property categories in the region saw significant price appreciation. The jump in appreciation was largely due to substantial pent-up demand from buyers who had to put their activity on hold during the shutdown.

Looking at prices by property type, the median price of a standard two-storey home in the Greater Montreal Area saw a strong increase of 8.7 per cent this quarter, compared to the second quarter of 2019, reaching $566,874. The median price of a bungalow rose 7.2 per cent year-over-year to $351,015, during the same period. Despite an increase of new listings in June, the median price of a condominium increased by 5.6 per cent year-over-year to $351,889.

“While we were experiencing unprecedented demand for real estate prior to the pandemic, the suspension of transactions during the lockdown has widened the gap between supply and demand,” said Dominic St-Pierre, vice president and general manager, Royal LePage for the Quebec region. “In my 18-year career, I have never seen such a tight ratio between the number of active listings and sales, reaching a new high in this seller’s market, despite the fact that the Montreal region has been hit the hardest by the pandemic and shutdown in Canada.”

As a result, Royal LePage is forecasting the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will increase 3.5 per cent to $452,000 in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter last year.

Greater Vancouver

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver increased 1.9 per cent year-over-year to $1,109,069 in the second quarter of 2020. Broken out by housing type, the median price of a standard two-storey home in Greater Vancouver increased 3.7 per cent year-over-year to $1,455,027 in the second quarter. During the same period, the median price of a condominium in the region remained relatively flat, decreasing 0.4 per cent year-over-year to $638,242, while the median price of a bungalow decreased 1.1 per cent to $1,189,692.

“The Greater Vancouver real estate market is continuing its recovery that began in 2019. While the pandemic caused a significant disruption in early spring sales, continued low inventory has maintained prices,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager, Royal LePage Sterling Realty.

Real estate in the city of Vancouver posted healthy year-over-year gains in the second quarter. The median price of a two-story home rose 7.6 per cent to $2,088,932 compared to the same period in the previous year. During the second quarter, the median price of a bungalow rose 2.6 per cent year-over-year to $1,434,738, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.0 per cent to $738,128.

“Stronger price appreciation for two-storey homes compared to condominiums reflects buyers’ preference for larger properties and less shared areas, a trend that has evolved as a result of the pandemic,” said Ryalls. “This has opened up excellent opportunities for those seeking city-centre condos.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will increase modestly by 0.5 per cent to $1,087,000 in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter last year.